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Retail sales rose 5.5%, better than the 5.2% increase forecast in a Reuters poll, while industrial production climbed 7%, compared with estimates of 5% growth. Investment into real estate fell by 9% in the first two months of the year from a year ago. National Bureau of Statistics Spokesperson Liu Aihua said that real estate remains in a period of "adjustment," according to a CNBC translation of his statement in Mandarin. New loans in February missed expectations and fell from the prior month, "even after adjusting for seasonality," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report Friday. Chinese authorities did not reveal significant new support for the massive real estate sector during an annual parliamentary meeting that ended last week.
Persons: Liu Aihua, Liu, Ting Lu, Goldman Sachs, Pan Gongsheng, Goldman Organizations: Pudong New, Investment, National Bureau of, CNBC, China, People's Bank of China, Reuters Locations: Dongyu, Qiantan, Pudong, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, China, BEIJING, Real, Beijing
Starting Feb. 5, the People's Bank of China will allow banks to hold smaller cash reserves, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said at a press conference, his first in the role. Cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points is set to release 1 trillion yuan ($139.8 billion) in long-term capital, the central bank said. A 2 trillion yuan boost? Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Monday called for much stronger measures to boost market stability and confidence, according to an official readout. Chinese authorities in October already announced the issuance of 1 trillion yuan in government bonds, alongside a rare increase in the deficit.
Persons: Gongsheng, Pan Gongsheng, Tao Wang, Ting Lu, a, Lu, Wang, Stocks, Winnie Wu, That's, Li Qiang, Pan, Philip Yin, David Chao, Pan's Organizations: People's Bank of China, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Financial, Getty, Visual China, People's Bank of, UBS Investment Bank, Wednesday, National Financial Regulatory Administration, UBS, Bank of America's, Bloomberg, PBOC, Citi, U.S, Asia Pacific, CNBC Locations: BEIJING, CHINA, Beijing, China, People's Bank of China, Asia, Hong Kong, capitulating, Japan, Invesco
HANGZHOU, CHINA - NOVEMBER 15, 2023 - An aerial photo shows a new property under construction in Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, China, Nov 15, 2023. (Photo credit should read CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images)BEIJING — The size of unfinished, pre-sold homes in China is about 20 times the size of property developer Country Garden as of the end of 2022, according to a Nomura report on Wednesday. "We estimate that there are around 20 million units of unconstructed and delayed pre-sold homes," said Nomura's Chief China Economist Ting Lu and a team. About 3.2 trillion yuan ($440 billion) is needed to complete those remaining units, according to the analysts' estimates. Ensuring construction of the homes has been a government priority since delays make people less willing to buy new apartments.
Persons: Nomura, Ting Lu Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Publishing, Getty Images, U.S, Bloomberg News, China Locations: HANGZHOU, CHINA, Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, China, BEIJING
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsBEIJING, Oct 25 (Reuters) - China's new sovereign bonds will help bolster the economic recovery, China's vice finance minister Zhu Zhongming said on Wednesday, as the government's stepped-up fiscal stimulus sharply raises its budget deficit. The government's debt level is still within a reasonable range, the minister said, without giving details. Analysts at UBS expect the government to raise its budget deficit and special local bond quotas for 2024, alongside further cuts in interest rates and bank reserve requirement ratios. China's parliament has also approved a bill to allow local governments to front load part of 2024 local bond quotas. Local governments had been told to complete the issuance of the 2023 quota of 3.8 trillion yuan in special local bonds by September to fund infrastructure projects.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Zhu Zhongming, Zhu, Ting Lu, Ellen Zhang, Kevin Yao, Christopher Cushing Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Nomura, UBS, Thomson Locations: Rights BEIJING, Beijing, China
Kim Kyung-Hoon | ReutersBEIJING — Chinese authorities late Tuesday announced one of the biggest changes to the national budget in years, along with the issuance of 1 trillion yuan in ($137 billion) in government bonds. Chinese state media said the 1 trillion yuan in central government issuance is set to be transferred to local governments in two parts, half for this year and half for next year. "It is roughly around 5% of transfer revenues or 2% of total revenues for the local governments," Yin said. "Note a special program has already been started since October, allowing local governments to issue special refinancing bonds to swap their outstanding hidden debt. Goldman Sachs analysts estimated the early issuance could be as much as 2.7 trillion yuan, based on prior government practice.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Hoon, Larry Hu, it's, Ting Lu, Yin, Nomura's Lu, Ricky Tsang, they're, Tsang, , Goldman Sachs, Macquarie's Hu, It's Organizations: Reuters, Macquarie, Monetary Fund, People's Bank of Locations: Beijing, Reuters BEIJING, China, Hong Kong, People's Bank of China
Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 4.4% in July-September from a year earlier, according to economists polled by Reuters, slowing from the 6.3% pace in the second quarter. Separate data on September activity is expected to show retail sales growth picking up but factory output slowing. Economic growth is seen hitting 5.0% this year, according to the poll, broadly in line Beijing’s full-year target, before slowing to 4.5% in 2024. For its part, the central bank is constrained by how much it can ease monetary policy due to worries about adding pressure on the yuan, which has tumbled 5.7% this year. The central bank cut the RRR in September to boost liquidity and support the economic recovery, its second reduction this year.
Persons: Thomas Peter, , Ting Lu Organizations: Central Business District, REUTERS, Gross, Reuters, Nomura Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China
China said last week it would cut interest rates on existing mortgages and eased rules for first-time buyers in big cities, in what the central bank and financial regulators jointly said were moves "conducive to expanding consumption." But to prevent profit margins from shrinking further, state-owned banks have also lowered deposit rates by 10-25 basis points in a coordinated move. But they also warn that a 15 basis point cut in interest rates on Chinese households' 131.4 trillion yuan of deposits reduces interest income by 197 billion per year. Mortgage rates for first homes are around 4%, while one-year fixed deposit rates are roughly 1.5%. "People don't consume because they don't have money so cutting deposit rates cannot really work."
Persons: Simon, Yu, government's, Ting Lu, Zhaopeng Xing, Li Xiao, Li, Guo, Nancy Yang, Yang, Jason Xue, Samuel Shen, Winni Zhou, Gao, Ellen Zhang, Ziyi Tang, Joe Cash, Marius Zaharia, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Nomura, ANZ, HIT, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, BEIJING, Shanghai, Beijing, China, Guangdong, Wuhan
Greg Baker | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — Without more stimulus, China is increasingly likely to miss its growth target of around 5% this year, economists said. "In such a case, economic momentum may stay subdued in the rest of the year and China may miss this year's growth target of around 5%," she said. China is the world's second-largest economy, and accounted for nearly 18% of global GDP in 2022, according to World Bank data. "We also see bigger downside risk to our 4.9% y-o-y growth forecast for both Q3 and Q4, and it is increasingly possible that annual GDP growth this year will miss the 5.0% mark," the report said. Growth vs. national securityChinese authorities' initial crackdown on real estate developers in 2020 was an attempt to curb their high reliance on growth.
Persons: Greg Baker, Tao Wang, spender, Nomura Ting Lu, Ting Lu, haven't, Louise Loo, Loo, that's, Xiangrong Yu, Gabriel Wildau, Teneo, Wildau Organizations: Afp, Getty, UBS Investment Bank, Bank, China, People's Bank of, Oxford Economics, Zhongrong International Trust, Information, Beijing, CNBC, Baoshang Bank, Anbang Locations: Beijing, BEIJING, China, Asia, People's Bank of China
Construction workers take a nap in front of a wall of a construction site during their lunch break in Beijing, China, May 5, 2015. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon /File PhotoAug 15 (Reuters) - China suspended publication of its youth jobless data on Tuesday, saying it needed to review the methodology behind the closely watched benchmark, which has hit record highs in one of many warning signs for the world's second-largest economy. Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said the release of data would be suspended while authorities look to "optimise" collection methods. "The declining availability of macro data may further weaken global investors' confidence in China," said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, adding that youth unemployment was expected to have risen in July. The most recent NBS data on youth unemployment, published last month, showed the jobless rate jumping to a record high of 21.3% in June.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Fu Linghui, Fu, Ting Lu, Tuesday's, Laurie Chen, Albee Zhang, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Sam Holmes, Gerry Doyle Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, Nomura, China News Service, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Weibo
People wearing face masks are seen on an overpass in front of a residential building in Beijing, China August 11, 2020. Investors may get their first read on the market reaction when official property investment and price data for August is released next month. It was not the curbs that were holding the market down, they said, but Chinese doubts about better days ahead. While not bullish on real estate, she thinks of big-city properties as a "slightly bruised apple amidst a bunch of rotten ones." "I'm concerned about the change," said a 26-year-old pharmaceuticals worker surnamed Song, who had considered buying a property in Beijing before realising he needed his parents' support.
Persons: Tingshu Wang, Kate Ren, hasn't, Ren, Ting Lu, Sophia Chen, Chen, Zhuran Zhang, Zhang, Song, Liangping Gao, Ella Cao, Shuyan Wang, Marius Zaharia, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Nomura, Investors, July's Communist Party, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING, HONG KONG, Shanghai, China's, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou
Its Shanghai-traded bond surged 25% to 38 yuan, while a Shenzhen-traded bond rose 44% to 33.6 yuan. "Most important, (Beijing) sent a signal of further easing property restrictions by dropping the phrase...and mentioning streaming property policies," Nomura chief China economist Ting Lu said. Sino-Ocean Group's onshore bond rose 8.6% to 23.5 yuan in Shanghai. The state-backed firm is currently negotiating with creditors to extend the repayment for the yuan bond due Aug. 2. Nomura's Lu maintained the view that there is no quick fix for the property sector, and that the central government would only marginally ease some existing restrictive measures in large cities.
Persons: Nomura, Ting Lu, Nomura's Lu, Morgan Stanley, Clare Jim, Jason Xue, Sherry Jacob, Phillips, Sam Holmes Organizations: Mainland Properties, CSI, HK, Garden Services, Communist Party, Longfor, Seazen, KWG, Ocean Group, Greenland Holdings, Country Garden, Dalian Wanda Group, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Hang, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, China
HONG KONG, July 25 (Reuters) - Shares of China's property developers surged on Tuesday following a sharp selloff in the previous session, after policymakers said they would step up support for the embattled sector. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index (.HSMPI) jumped 12%, while Chinese CSI 300 Real Estate (.CSI000952) gained 7%. "Most important, (Beijing) sent a signal of further easing property restrictions by dropping the phrase...and mentioning streaming property policies," Nomura chief China economist Ting Lu said. Lu, however, maintained the view that there is no quick fix for the property sector, and the central government would only marginally ease some existing restrictive measures in large cities. In recent weeks, investors were wary of a deepening debt crisis in the property sector as new signs of trouble emerged among state-backed property developers Sino-Ocean Group (3377.HK) and Greenland Holdings (600606.SS), as well as property giants Country Garden (2007.HK) and Dalian Wanda Group.
Persons: Nomura, Ting Lu, Lu, Morgan Stanley, Clare Jim, Sherry Jacob, Phillips, Sam Holmes Organizations: Mainland Properties, CSI, HK, Longfor, Seazen, KWG, Communist Party, Ocean Group, Greenland Holdings, Country, Dalian Wanda Group, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Hang, Hong Kong, China, HK, Beijing
"For China, it is 'bad news is good news' at the moment," said Jun Bei Liu, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners in Sydney. Even before the latest disappointing growth data, a slew of soft economic indicators had shown China's recovery was falling short, slamming the brakes on nascent stock market rallies. Foreign money has been leaving, with worries over China's cyber-security crackdowns and Sino-U.S. flaps over chips and rare metals adding to growth concerns. REVIEWING CHINAGoldman Sachs analysts led by Kinger Lau also believe a 'tactical market recovery' thesis is compelling, and project a 15% 12-month return for the CSI300. "We are conservative about the extent of the policy support down the road," said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist, Asia Pacific at Natixis.
Persons: Jun Bei Liu, Liu, Marcella Chow, CHINA Goldman Sachs, Kinger Lau, it's, Mike Kelly, Alicia Garcia Herrero, Eugenia Victorino, SEB, Victorino, Ting Lu, Jason Xue, Tom Westbrook, Kim Coghill Organizations: Tribeca Investment Partners, CSI, Morgan Asset Management, CHINA, JPMorgan, PineBridge Investments, Nomura, Thomson Locations: China, Sydney, U.S, Asia, Natixis, Shanghai
The data broadly tracked the government's official PMI released last week and showed a slowdown in service sector activity as demand for in-person services weakened. Business activity and new orders both expanded at notably slower rates last month than in May, the Caixin PMI showed. The rate of job creation in the services sector also edged up to a three-month high but remained mild overall. Caixin/S&P's composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, fell to 52.5 from 55.6 in May, marking the sixth straight month of expansion. "Meanwhile, the services sector continued a post-COVID rebound, but the recovery was losing steam."
Persons: Wang Zhe, Nomura, Ting Lu, Ellen Zhang, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: P Global, PMI, Employment, Caixin Insight, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, COVID, China
China's services activity expanded at the slowest pace in five months in June, a private-sector survey showed on Wednesday, as weakening demand weighed on post-pandemic recovery momentum. The data broadly tracked the government's official PMI released last week and showed a slowdown in service sector activity as demand for in-person services weakened. Business activity and new orders both expanded at notably slower rates last month than in May, the Caixin PMI showed. The rate of job creation in the services sector also edged up to a three-month high but remained mild overall. "Meanwhile, the services sector continued a post-COVID rebound, but the recovery was losing steam."
Persons: Wang Zhe, Nomura, Ting Lu Organizations: P Global, PMI, Employment, Caixin Insight Locations: China, Covid
SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, June 14 (Reuters) - China's central bank is widely expected to cut the borrowing cost of medium-term policy loans for the first time in 10 months on Thursday, after it lowered two key short-term policy rates, a Reuters poll showed. China remains an outlier among global central banks as it loosens monetary policy to shore up a stalling recovery but further rate cuts will widen the yield gap with U.S. assets and risk greater outflows. The MLF rate serves as a guide to the benchmark loan prime rate (LPR), and markets usually use the medium-term rate as a precursor to any changes to the lending benchmark. Looking ahead, we expect another 10bp cut in the MLF rate in 3Q23." The PBOC last cut the MLF rate in August 2022 to prop up the broad economy disrupted by stringent zero-COVID measures.
Persons: Ting Lu, Larry Hu, Wu Fang, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: People's Bank of China, Nomura, Macquarie, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, China, lockstep
The recovery in China has been much slower than what other major countries experienced when they lifted their pandemic restrictions. Still, the Chinese consumer has proved to be resilient in the face of these broader economic challenges. It marked the fastest pace of growth since the first quarter of 2022, fueled by higher spending from Chinese consumers. Club stock results Recent financial results from our China-exposed companies show that Chinese consumers have been holding up even as broader economic recovery is delayed. China is a growth market for each company and improvement in economic activity there should be a catalyst for these stocks.
Persons: Estee Lauder, , Ting Lu, WYNN, hasn't, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Jason Lee Organizations: Starbucks, Wynn Resorts, WYNN, China Index Academy, National Bureau of Statistics, Club, Gaming, Prestige, CNBC Locations: China, China's, Beijing, Macao, Asia, SBUX
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's largest banks cut interest rates for savers on Thursday in a bid to boost growth in an economy where consumption has been slow to recover. The country's six state-owned commercial banks' websites all showed updated yuan-denominated demand deposit interest rates of 0.2%, down from 0.25% last year, according to CNBC checks. The banks cut rates for other deposit products, including reducing the interest rate for five-year time deposits to 2.5% from 2.65%, according to their websites. The state-run Securities Times reported the deposit rate cuts in the Thursday edition of the newspaper. However, it's not a given that lower deposit rates will translate immediately into greater spending.
Persons: Nomura, Ting Lu, Zhang, it's Organizations: of, Bloomberg, Getty, BEIJING, CNBC, Securities Times, People's Bank of China, China, Management Locations: of China, China, Shanghai
Investors should buy Lufax as the China-based lending company pivots, according to Sanford C. Bernstein. Small- and medium-sized business lending has outpaced the GDP growth in China by three to four times, the analyst wrote. And despite the recent economic slowdown, Yu said new loans should resume at a compound annual growth rate of about 15% between 2024 and 2027. That would represent a "U"-shaped recovery, with earnings per share bottoming out before growing at a compound annual rate of 20% between 2024 and 2027, Bernstein said. After taking more risk exposure, the company's impairment losses are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 15%.
Persons: Sanford C, Bernstein, Tianjiao Yu, Yu, Lufax, Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S, LU Locations: China, 2023E
China's economic recovery is losing momentum after an initial burst in consumer and business activity early in the year, prompting calls for more policy stimulus to bolster growth. // "The stimulus package could be centered on the property sector, with expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to keep up growth momentum," Citi economists led by Xiangrong Yu wrote in a Tuesday note. Don't expect a 'bazooka'Nomura's Chief China economist Ting Lu said "the situation of China's property sector appears dire." The Japanese investment bank doesn't expect a "bazooka" stimulus package but predicts it will be introduced in a cautious manner. They pointed to the latest wording from top policymakers and their emphasis on "security" – how this is an indicator for the scale of a stimulus package to come.
Persons: Qilai Shen, Xiangrong Yu, Ting Lu, Nomura Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty, Citi Locations: Wuxi, China, Beijing
Previously, the only regular direct flights by Chinese carriers between mainland China and New York since the pandemic were from Shanghai and Guangzhou. Flights of Air China are parked on the tarmac of Beijing Capital International Airport in Beijing, China, March 28, 2016. watch nowIn March, Delta announced it resumed direct flights between the U.S. and China — from Shanghai to Seattle and Detroit. Overall, mainland China's international flights remains below 40% of 2019 levels, the Nomura report said. The analysts expect that level to pick up to 70% by the end of the year as international flights recover around the summer holiday season.
Persons: Nomura, Ting Lu, Kim Kyung Hoon Organizations: China, U.S, Air, U.S . Department of Transportation, Beijing Capital International Airport, Reuters, American Airlines, Delta Locations: BEIJING, U.S, China, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Italy, Variflight, Middle East, Iran, Beijing, Ukraine, Air China, New York, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Los Angeles, Delta, United, Seattle, Detroit
New warning signs emerge for China's property market
  + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Construction on a real estate development project gets underway near the Bund in Shanghai, China, on May 25, 2023. BEIJING — New data show China's massive property sector is still struggling to turn around, despite signs of recovery earlier this year. Beijing has eased its pressure on real estate developers in the last year, following a crackdown on their debt levels in August 2020. The property sector and related industries have accounted for more than a quarter of China's economy, according to Moody's estimates. Both weeks' sales volume was lower than during the same period in 2019, prior to the pandemic, the report said.
Persons: That's, Ting Lu Organizations: Bund Locations: Shanghai, China, BEIJING, U.S, Beijing
A man rides his bicycle past a "G7 Hiroshima" flower sign at the Peace Memorial Park in Hiroshima, ahead of the G7 Leaders' Summit, on May 17, 2023. (Photo by Philip FONG / AFP) (Photo by PHILIP FONG/AFP via Getty Images) Philip Fong | Afp | Getty ImagesThe annual Group of 7 summit officially kicks off on Friday in Hiroshima, Japan. A sign of G7 Hiroshima Summit is pictured in Hiroshima, ahead of the G7 Leaders' Summit, on May 16, 2023. G-7 finance leaders and central bankers finalized a three-day meeting in Niigata last week. "The U.S. will have a package of sanctions associated with the G-7 statement that will center on this enforcement issue," he told reporters.
The consumer price index (CPI) in April rose 0.1% year-on-year, the lowest rate since February 2021, and cooling from the 0.7% annual gain seen in March, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. Reuters GraphicsPBOC TESTEDOverall inflationary pressures remain low with the core consumer inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, up 0.7%, unchanged from the previous month. The statistics bureau attributed the weaker consumer inflation to the base effect. Vegetable prices extended their decline to 13.5% and pork, a major driver of CPI, slowed its price growth to 4.0% from 9.6% in March. "Securing income growth and improving consumer confidence remain key policy priorities for delivering a more sustainable consumption recovery," said Pang.
BEIJING, May 8 (Reuters) - China's exports were expected to have risen again in April, albeit at a less robust pace than a month earlier, a Reuters poll showed, supported by unfulfilled orders after last year's COVID disruptions though slowing global growth is darkening the outlook. With many of China's major trade partners on the brink of recession, analysts remain wary about the outlook, noting that the stunning improvement in March partly reflects suppliers catching up with unfulfilled orders from last year's COVID disruptions. South Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China's imports, were down 26.5% in April, continuing 10 consecutive months of decline. China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter thanks to robust services consumption, but factory output has lagged amid weak global growth. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of around 5% for this year, after badly missing the 2022 goal.
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